| 摘要: |
| 运用2008-2017年体育产业增加值、产业结构层次系数，通过协整分析、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解法，实证检验体育产业发展与区域产业结构升级之间的相互作用。结果显示：体育产业发展与区域产业结构升级之间存在长期均衡关系，同时两者间具有正向促进作用；从短期来看，两者的增长除了受上一期自身发展的影响外，相互间存在正向促进作用；二者之间存在单向因果关系，即体育产业发展是区域产业结构升级的格兰杰原因；当体育产业受到冲击时，表现为“短期效应强，长期效应弱”；当区域产业结构受到冲击时，表现为“短期效应弱，长期效应强”；二者的发展以自身内在驱动力为主，体育产业发展对区域产业结构升级的影响具有“滞后效应”。 |
| 关键词: 体育产业 区域产业结构 动态关系 VAR模型 脉冲响应 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目“中国制造2025背景下体育用品制造业服务化路径研究”（18YJA890028）；福建省社会科学规划项目“福建省体育产业与旅游产业融合发展及驱动因子分析研究”（FJ2019C013） |
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| Research on the Dynamic Relationship between the Development of Sports Industry and the Upgrading of Regional Industrial Structure——Empirical Test Based on VAR Model and Impulse Response |
| XU Jinfu |
| (Sports Industry Development Research Center, Fujian Jiangxia University, Fuzhou 350108, China) |
| Abstract: |
| The interaction between the development of sports industry and the upgrading of regional industrial structure is empirically tested by using the valueadded of sports industry and the hierarchical coefficient of industrial structure from 2008 to 2017, through Co_Integration Analysis, error correction model, Granger Causality Test, impulse response function and variance decomposition method.The result shows that there is a longterm equilibrium relationship between the development of sports industry and the upgrading of regional industrial structure and the two have a positive role in promoting each other.In the short term, the growth of the two is not only affected by their own development in the previous period, but also has a positive role in promoting each other. It also shows that there is a oneway causal relationship between the two, that is, the development of sports industry is Granger of the upgrading of regional industrial structure causes. When the sports industry is impacted, it shows “strong shortterm effect and weak longterm effect”, and when the regional industrial structure is impacted, it shows “weak shortterm effect and strong longterm effect”.The development of both is mainly driven by their own internal driving force and the influence of sports industry development on the upgrading of regional industrial structure has “lag effect”. |
| Key words: sports industry regional industrial structure dynamic relationship VAR model impulse response |
